Saturday, November 12, 2005

Hope Still Ahead

With those sands spilling through the glass, DC remains well ahead among party members. Today's YouGov poll puts him two-to-one ahead, the same as last week.

And it's nothing to do with policy or experience- it's the hope that this young presentable PR man can take us back to power. As Anthony King comments:

'Few rank-and-file Tories seem overly impressed by Mr Cameron. Many of them see him as inexperienced and a lightweight, a man with style but not much substance. However, a large majority also see him as a man of the future under whom the Conservatives could make a fresh start.

Mr Davis appears to suffer precisely because he is the more established and experienced of the two.

The "Which candidate?" section contains the killer statistic from Mr Davis's point of view. Nearly two thirds of Conservative Party members, 64 per cent, believe that, of the two men, Mr Cameron "would do more to boost the Conservative Party's chances of winning the next general election". A mere 21 per cent think that Mr Davis would prove the more effective vote-winner.'

It's that Keynes beauty contest again, with Tory members setting on one side their own convictions, and trying instead to second-guess who the broader electorate will judge the prettier contestant.

Frank Johnson reckons "niceness" is the X-Factor we've latched onto. We've decided the electorate want "niceness", so that's what we'll offer them.

And so powerful is this extraordinary crowd wisdom that it's even won over DC's sworn enemy the Daily Mail:

'The opportunity is there. The prospects exciting. The Tories have succumbed to despair for too long. Yes, it is a gamble, but this is a time to choose hope. The Mail believes constituency members should vote for David Cameron.'

Of course, that could be a problem for DC- with even the Mail onside, who on earth will he line up for those Clause IV show trials?
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