Tuesday, November 15, 2005

Bloggers For Davis 38

Over at the Outside Story, Mark Adams tells us to pull ourselves together:

'I have noticed a general despondency of late amongst pro-Davis bloggers. In spite of announcing good policies on tax, healthcare and the EU, and giving Cameron a kicking on QT, Davis still lags in the polls. DC has claimed he is “on a roll” and his supporters are even apportioning jobs in his shadow cabinet. Cameron’s lucky not have had a meltdown but that is not so hard when you don’t actually say anything.'

Mark questions the polls. "Nice" Tories perhaps don't like to admit they're voting DD- particularly now he's behind- an effect routinely observed in party polls:

'In every election Labour wins fewer votes than the raw polling data predicts. Pollsters apply ‘dampeners’ to the Labour numbers so they will reflect the result at the ballot box. In between elections those dampeners are removed, giving Labour their seemingly insurmountable lead that will evaporate at the next election.'

Could the same thing be going on here? We've certainly seen some wild polling variation, so could it be? Could it possibly be true? On a chilly November evening it's a thought to bring a rosy glow to the coldest cheeks.

We will pull ourselves together. As Mark says, we must "fight this down to the wire".


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