Monday, September 12, 2005

Polls Recap

This week will be a busy one in the leadership race, so before we move on let's recap on what those polls are telling us.

First, only Ken and DD are credible contenders. Having put down their various markers, the others should now withdraw before the Conference. The last thing we need is a week-long Big Brother style TV show featuring the Tory Party as a sackful of ferrets.

Second, Ken is no electoral magic bullet: while he's widely liked, when pitched against Brown, that wouldn't translate into Tory votes. Under either Ken or DD, as things stand the polls predict a fourth resounding defeat.

Third, while Ken may be ahead among Party members as a first round candidate, in a head-to-head run-off with DD he'd lose. And that's from polling that took place at the height of last week's media Kenfest.

And finally, we need to be very wary of allowing polls to choose our leader. Apart from all their usual problems, we are still four years away from the next real poll. We must rely on our own skill and judgement, ever-mindful of the direction in which we want our leader to lead. Only by getting that right will we deserve to return to power.


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