Thursday, July 07, 2005

"Davis Surges Ahead"

Under the headline 'Davis surges ahead', the Telegraph reports that DD's support among MPs is now 'north of 50'.

Of course, as the Tory Leadership Blog has reminded us, this is one of the least dependable (ie trustworthy) electorates anywhere. So we can't really be sure of anything until actual votes are counted.

For what it's worth, TLB put Our Man's 'known' support at 27, including the four new declarations we recorded yesterday.

By way of comparison, the Telegraph puts both Ken and David Cameron neck-and-neck on about 25 each. Whereas TLB puts Cameron on just 9, and Ken on some share of the 30 they identify as being for the Clarke/Lansley/Rifkind composite beast.

Overall, TLB reckon they have identified the voting intentions of 78 of the 197 Tory MPs. So still a deal of uncertainty.

Much more compelling is the weight of money behind DD. The bookies have him on 1/2, equivalent to a 67 per cent probability of success. Cameron they put on 20 per cent, still well behind but a significant improvement following India Knight's declaration of fanciability.

Poor old Ken is now trailing way behind on 16/1, a barely visible 6 per cent probability of winning. Still, the bookies were wrong about Paris getting the Olympics, so Ken may figure they could be wrong again.

He probably shouldn't hold his breath.


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