Saturday, May 28, 2005

DD Odds Shorten Further

Look, when it comes to Tory leadership contests, we all know about the Favourite's Curse.

Butler, Maudling, Whitelaw, Hezza, Ken, Portaloo- they've all crumpled under its evil hex.

So I have mixed feelings about DD's shortening odds. But according to Political Betting, William Hill have now shortened him to 11/8, which translates into a 42 per cent probability that he will win.

'Although new possible challengers keep being talked up, it is David Davis who is continuing to attract the serious money' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.

David Cameron is his nearest rival, on 5/1, or a probability of 17 per cent.

Next are William Hague and George Osborne, both on 8/1. The fact that they've both formally ruled themselves out suggests the weight of money behind them isn't that great.

Doc Fox and Rifkind are both even further behind on 10/1, with Lansley and Ken bringing up the rear on 12/1.

So the punters say its DD vs Cameron.

But...but...Davids both, come on, do you really need to slug it out? We've managed to get ourselves into some very choppy waters over these wretched election rules, and we need to avoid further unneccessary boat rocking.

From out here it all looks so simple and so obvious. Senior David has the weight and experience we need today, and Junior David has the strong potential to be the natural successor in a decade.

A Dream Ticket with a built in succession plan. And unlike Blair and Brown there's a natural 17 year age gap.

Is that so very naive?
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